Lu Yi

Abstract: Since the early 2000s, many advanced economies have seen a decline in initial public offerings (IPOs) of stock and, consequently, the count of publicly-traded companies. The drop in IPOs has raised pressing questions: Is there a decline in transformative new firms and has our financial system become less supportive of them? A primary barrier to understanding these patterns is the scarcity of data on private firms. To bridge this gap, I compile a comprehensive dataset tracking the financial characteristics and ownership structure for both public and private firms in the United Kingdom (UK) throughout their lifespan. I find that a decreasing population of young firms, a trend underscored in economic dynamism literature, accounts for around 25% of the IPO reduction in the UK since its 2007 peak. Yet, this is just one facet of a broader trend. I confirm anecdotal evidence that an increasing proportion of high-growth young firms are turning to private external funding sources, such as venture capital and other private equity (PE) funds. This implies that the outlook for transformational startups is not as pessimistic as the declining trend in IPOs suggests. Furthermore, I highlight the pronounced role of mergers and acquisitions (M&A), particularly an uptick in cross-border M&A as an ownership transition for private firms. Finally, I show that this more complex view of how equity ownership evolves is integral to understanding trends in economic dynamism.

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Employment Dynamics at VC-Backed Companies in the United States: Analyzed employment data and performed imputation analysis for a project conducted in collaboration with the National Venture Capital Association to estimate the total employment generated by VC-backed companies in the US from 1990 to 2020.

Deal-level Attribution Analysis for Private Equity: Developed a methodology to estimate the contributions to financial performance by private equity-owned companies. The findings were featured in a white paper by the Institute for Private Capital, which addressed performance analysis and attribution within alternative investments.

Senior Housing vs. Aging-In-Place: Analyzed the residential choice behavior of the senior population across various US regions. Overlaying maps of senior care supply data identified areas with inadequate senior care facilities, aiding investment decisions and policymaking.

COVID-19 Decision Dashboard: Collected and analyzed data for the COVID-19 Decision Dashboard, a 'real-time' research project commissioned by the Governor to advise on North Carolina's response to the pandemic, focusing on economic activity and business operations.

Estimating Undetected COVID-19 Infections: Constructed and estimated a time-varying Markov model to forecast COVID-19 cases in North Carolina.

Visualization Tool for Hidden Risk Transactions under Different Pension Plan Designs: Investigated intergenerational equity in the Canadian implementation of risk-sharing pension plans using a Value-Based Asset Liability Management framework.

Developed and Implemented an approximation method for projecting a joint life variable annuity with a spousal continuation option. Programmed new features in the annuity module using C++ to meet client requirements.